The Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with the key moment at 3:30 PM — Powell's speech. Based on market reactions, the probability of gold breaking new highs is quite significant.

The interest rate decision itself influences the entire commodities market. During a rate-cut cycle, gold, as a safe-haven asset and a store of value, usually performs strongly. As the pressure to raise rates eases, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, which is the fundamental logic.

Specifically for this speech, the market is most concerned about Powell’s stance on the future policy direction. If his tone is dovish, signaling continued easing, it will be difficult for gold not to hit new highs. Conversely, if he is cautious in his language, gold may face pressure.

In simple terms, the next performance will largely depend on the content of this 30-minute speech. The relevant background has already been analyzed above; here, the main purpose is to remind everyone to pay attention to the timing. Market participants are all waiting for this moment, and the market could be very pivotal.