The latest Federal Reserve dot plot has been released, revealing some subtle signals — there is a noticeable divergence among officials regarding the interest rate trajectory for 2026.

The median forecast shows one rate cut in 2026, another in 2027, and no change in 2028. But looking at the distribution of votes, the picture gets much more complex:

On the hawkish side, 3 members think there should be a rate hike next year (one more than in September); 4 members support holding rates steady (down from 6 in September).

On the dovish side? 4 votes favor one cut, 4 votes support two cuts, and 2 members believe there should be three cuts. The most aggressive stance is from the one member advocating six cuts — such a position did not exist in September. As for four cuts, the number has decreased from 2 to 1.

Behind this divergence, it actually reflects a game of multiple factors such as economic data, inflation expectations, and the employment market. For the crypto market, the marginal change in rate cut expectations is often more critical than the absolute number — after all, liquidity tightness directly impacts the pricing of risk assets.