The latest Federal Reserve dot plot has been released, with 19 policymakers showing a clear divergence on the interest rate outlook for 2026.

The hawkish camp is prevailing: 7 officials directly vote "no cut," while another 4 support only a symbolic 25 basis point cut. In other words, more than half of the committee members are cautious about aggressive easing.

The centrist camp is relatively moderate: 4 believe a 50bp cut is appropriate, and 2 lean toward a 75bp reduction.

Dovish voices are scarce: only 1 official bets on a total cut of 100bp, and another more aggressive one supports a full 150bp cut.

This voting distribution reflects internal concerns within the Federal Reserve about inflation resilience and economic robustness—rate cut expectations are being repriced, and markets should prepare for a "higher for longer" scenario.