Goldman Sachs latest report drops a bombshell on the market—the Federal Reserve's current cycle of preemptive rate cuts has already peaked. Do they want to continue easing? Not unless the employment market truly collapses. What signals are hidden behind this judgment?

Let's break down the technical terms first: "preemptive rate cuts" means the Federal Reserve cuts rates early, before the economy shows clear signs of recession—it's more like giving a preventive shot rather than an emergency rescue. Goldman Sachs's logic is straightforward—further rate cuts depend on a significant rise in the unemployment rate and continued weakness in non-farm data, which isn't an easy threshold to meet. More importantly, three hawkish members explicitly voted against the rate cut at the last policy meeting, and the policy statement specifically added flexible language like "depending on timing and magnitude," clearly aimed at reassuring the hawks.

However, the market often harbors reverse logic:

First, the game rules for expectations management have changed. The more stringent Goldman Sachs makes the conditions for "continued rate cuts," the more sensitive the market becomes to employment data—if subsequent data shows even slight weakness, expectations of "being forced to cut rates" will quickly ferment, and risk assets including cryptocurrencies might instead see an early reaction window.

Second, historical experience is worth referencing. After the 2019 cycle of preemptive rate cuts was launched, despite the Fed's cautious initial stance, three consecutive rate cuts were directly realized when signs of loosening employment data appeared. During that period, Bitcoin's price surged from the $7,000 range to $14,000, driven by marginal improvements in liquidity expectations.

The key now is: the higher the threshold is set, the faster the market reaction may be once real data breaks the balance, potentially even faster than policy shifts.