#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as planned last night, but the issue isn't the rate cut itself—it's what Powell says. The result is neither a clear shift towards easing nor a complete loosening of risk appetite; instead, all uncertainties are left to "subsequent data."

Honestly: what the market fears most has never been bad news, but that no one really knows what will happen next.

The current situation is actually like this—liquidity hasn't truly loosened yet, but risk assets have already priced in the trend.

Many people naturally think "a rate cut is good news," but history has repeatedly taught us a fact: when a bear market just begins, rate cuts are usually not a rescue but a signal that "the economy is having some problems."

Why do I still lean bearish on this upcoming wave of the market?

**The first reason is straightforward: there’s no real easing at the policy level**

Powell repeatedly says he will "wait for data before deciding," which indicates what? It shows that inflation and economic conditions are not yet at a level to aggressively loosen monetary policy. From another perspective, this rate cut is more like a "try it out first," not a comprehensive easing.

**The second reason is that expectations have already been overhyped**

Bitcoin's quick rebound from lows is ultimately not because fundamentals have improved but because funds are betting on "the rate cut cycle has arrived." Now that the dust has settled, the market isn’t as dovish as expected; instead, enthusiasm is starting to cool down.

**The third reason is the market structure**

The current trend resembles that of 2018 and 2022—rising with no volume, reluctance to increase volume during upward moves, and increased volume during declines, with serious divergence in market sentiment. There are many short-term traders. This isn’t a bull market correction; it looks more like a rebound in the early stage of a bear market.

What’s next? Here’s my view:

There will be an inertia-driven rebound in sentiment, but it won’t go too high; the real concern is the economic data in the coming weeks—if employment or inflation worsens even a bit, risk assets will face a second wave of pressure; Bitcoin will likely just fluctuate at high levels and then gradually weaken, with sentiment cooling further.

For cautious investors, just remember this: don’t rush to bottom fish and get caught in the crossfire, and don’t get dragged into a full leverage by a rebound. The current phase is about protecting principal, not chasing big profits.

The real opportunity? It must appear when the entire market stops talking about "bottom fishing."