The previous assessment was that rate cuts would be combined with short-term rate hikes, and the market trend has basically validated this view.

After the rate decision, here are a few key signals:

The first to note is the change in pace. This time, the rate was lowered to the 3.50%-3.75% range, marking the third consecutive cut. But the dot plot reveals something more interesting — only 25 basis points of easing are reserved for 2026. Translated, it means: short-term liquidity is being injected, but the ceiling has already been set.

The second is that policy focus is shifting. The statement removed the phrase "relatively low unemployment rate," instead emphasizing that downward pressure on employment is increasing. This adjustment is not just a casual change in wording; it actually shifts the policy balance from "controlling inflation first" to "focusing on employment risks."

Markets tend to respond to such signals with a lag but can be decisive, so continuous monitoring of employment data is recommended.