2025-12-11 01:31:10

Treating a 10% edge as "risk-free"? That takes some serious overconfidence.

Yeah, front-running confirmed events before resolution closes can be easy money—but we're talking 4% max returns here, not life-changing gains.

Here's the thing: as prediction markets go mainstream, those 10% mispricings actually become more common. Why? Because there's real profit sitting there, waiting to get arbitraged away. The paradox is that popularity breeds opportunity—until it doesn't.

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AlphaBrain

· 12-14 00:25

10% returns and calling it risk-free? That logic is really mind-blowing, wake up, brother. --- It's great to profit from arbitrage earlier, but 4% is the limit; don't think about getting rich overnight. --- The prediction market is getting more popular, but it’s actually more mispriced? That's an interesting paradox. When everyone starts copying, and liquidity dries up, it’s a whole different story. --- Basically, the more popular it is, the greater the opportunity, but that also means increased competition, and it can be drained in just a few years. --- Many people are watching that 10%, waiting for the day it disappears.

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YieldWhisperer

· 12-12 23:22

Daring to claim risk-free with only a 10% margin? This guy really has guts.

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GamefiGreenie

· 12-11 02:01

10% edge dares to be called risk-free, how self-deceiving is that...

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HalfIsEmpty

· 12-11 01:51

10% edge dares to be called risk-free, how confident must that be? To put it simply, front-running trading can indeed be exploited, but 4% is the absolute limit. Don't expect to change your fate.

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PumpStrategist

· 12-11 01:38

Thinking a 10% return is still a safe profit—this mindset is indeed absurd [laugh哭] --- There was indeed more arbitrage space in the early stages, but by the time you actually get it, it’s only about 4%. Don’t be fooled. --- Does the prediction market become more volatile as it gets hotter? I think it’s the other way around; this just shows the market is becoming smarter. --- A typical rookie mentality is to think arbitrage opportunities will always exist. When large funds flood in, you’ll realize what liquidity dominance really means. --- The pattern is already set, hot money is piling in this direction. It’s inevitable that latecomers won’t make money. --- Interesting levels are those hidden mispricings, not the obvious 10% price difference. --- Risks haven’t been fully released yet, and people dare to say it’s stable arbitrage—that mindset is problematic.

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