2025-12-11 02:21:30

The Fed's recent move is quite interesting—cutting by 25 basis points, but this time it's not exactly good news.

The December FOMC meeting has concluded, with the federal funds rate lowered to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since September. Sounds pretty good? Don’t rush to pop the champagne. The voting was immediately chaotic: 3 out of 9 members voted against the decision, marking the first such split in six years. Some think they should cut 50 basis points directly to save jobs, while others don’t want to cut at all.

Even more surreal is that while they are cutting rates, they simultaneously announced the resumption of government bond purchases on December 12. This dual approach appears to be a double boost on the surface, but it actually exposes underlying anxiety—the employment data is declining, but inflation hasn’t fully subdued yet. Officially trying to please both sides, the market ends up in confusion.

The dot plot reveals even more explosive information: the pace of rate cuts in 2025 might slow to an unbelievable extent, possibly even staying stagnant for a long time. The so-called " easing cycle"? Don’t overthink it.

Why hasn’t the crypto market taken off? $BTC and $ETH didn’t surge immediately after the news; instead, they started to move sideways. This is actually not hard to understand:

First, expectations were already overly baked. Since October, the rally was mainly about pre-emptively digesting rate cut expectations. When the actual cuts happened, the move had already been fully priced in.

Second, the market has sensed a hawkish tone. The Fed says they are cutting rates, but their attitude clearly suggests "don’t count on us doing this forever." Such ambiguous stance kills sentiment, and funds are hesitant to bet on a direction.

Finally, liquidity transmission in traditional finance is inherently lagging. The money saved from rate cuts doesn’t instantly flow onto the chain; institutional rebalancing and risk appetite adjustments take time. At this stage, cautious observation is more rational than impulsive moves.

BTC-1.55%

ETH-0.68%

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TestnetScholar

· 17h ago

All been deceived by the hawks, do you still expect easing in 2025? Wake up.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 20h ago

Hawkish rate cuts are really the end of the line, I knew the market's muted reaction meant this round was a bust Cutting rates while buying bonds at the same time—are they playing word games with us? All expectations have been fulfilled, and now those stepping in are just unlucky fools

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TradFiRefugee

· 12-12 04:57

The rate cut has been implemented, but there's no reaction, indicating it was already absorbed long ago. Now you want to rush in? Wake up.

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GasFeeCrier

· 12-11 02:50

Hawkish policies are really incredible—talk about cutting rates while buying bonds. What kind of magic trick is this? The real scary thing is the three dissenting votes; all expectations have been digested. Those jumping in now are just the bagholders. Wait, when will the money from the actual rate cut start flowing in? We’ll have to wait for the institutions to stop dragging their feet. That dot plot thing just says "Don’t overthink it"; a 25bp cut can’t fix this job market mess. Bitcoin has been steady for a while, which I anticipated; it’s all just October expectations causing trouble. Now, sideways movement is the most normal. The market right now is just betting whether the Fed will change its mind. Anyone who dares to hold a heavy position is just a fool. Loose monetary cycle? The Fed’s words are even more虚 than the chain, brother.

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GhostAddressHunter

· 12-11 02:42

The rate cut boots have landed, but there's no market movement. With such a hawkish stance, who would dare to buy the dip? The Federal Reserve is flooding liquidity while hinting not to expect it—this is just psychological warfare. The expectation has been overhyped to death; that October wave really was a preemptive burnout. Liquidity transmission is sometimes lagged; these two months still need to continue sideways and be frustrating. The scene caused by three dissenting votes—next year’s rate cut pace will definitely be dragged down by these hawks.

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SeasonedInvestor

· 12-11 02:34

Oh my, the Federal Reserve's move is really disappointing; superficially cutting rates but actually staying hawkish. Wait, isn't this a perfect example of "saying I love you with words, but being honest with actions"? The expectation that the bottom would fall out has been shattered, no wonder coins haven't taken off. What happened to the promised easing cycle? Instead, it's just stalling in 2025, hilarious. The market had already priced in the expectations, there's really nothing to do now, can't even rush in. The money from rate cuts hasn't even flowed into the chain yet, and many people are starting to panic buy the dip. Indeed, it looks positive but is actually all empty; the market's sniffing skills are really good. Three dissenting votes in six years is rare; the Fed is torn internally, and they still want to stabilize the market? Trying to please both sides has resulted in chaos; that's what you call advanced leek harvesting. Liquidity lag is too critical; most people just can't understand it. Sideways consolidation is the most annoying; both rises and falls seem possible, but there's no way to make money.

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CryptoFortuneTeller

· 12-11 02:33

Hawkish rate cuts mean there’s no hope for next year.

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SolidityNewbie

· 12-11 02:32

Hawkish rate cut? Isn't that just "we help you, but don't count on it too much," haha. --- Three votes against, the market had already factored in expectations long ago. Now they're still hoping for a surge? Dream on. --- Double positive signals? I see it as double anxiety. The market’s reaction is the most honest. --- The delay in liquidity transmission really hits home. Honestly, on-chain activity is still waiting. --- Rather than saying it's easing, it's more like the Fed is playing Tai Chi. Funds are all confused. --- Employment declines, but inflation hasn't subsided. Who dares to hold heavy positions under such strange circumstances? --- Expectations have been exhausted, and the drop of the shoe turns out to be a letdown. It's an old trick. --- Let it consolidate if it wants. Better than rushing in now and getting cut. --- "Don't expect us to keep doing this," this sentence is the most damaging. Sentiment is gone. --- The dot plot showing next year's slowdown is outrageous? Then this year's "easing" is just a smoke screen. --- BTC didn't surge wildly, which is good. It shows the market isn't completely crazy yet, still rational.

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CounterIndicator

· 12-11 02:30

It's the same old trick again. They say there's a rate cut, but the tone remains hawkish. I knew this round was a no-go.

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PebbleHander

· 12-11 02:30

The rate cut news didn't trigger any reaction; the market had already fully priced in the expectation earlier, haha.

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