After the rate cut expectations were speculated, BTC has started playing the roller coaster again.

Last night, following the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin jumped from $90,000, reaching a high of $94,000. However, the good times didn't last long; selling pressure at high levels caused the price to drop back to $92,000. A classic "rise and fall" pattern, the market is telling you with real actions: you want a one-shot rally? Think again.

On the regulatory front, there have been frequent signals of goodwill. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued Circular 1188, explicitly allowing banks to engage in crypto asset matching services without inventory risk — meaning traditional financial institutions can now feel more confident to get involved in this space. SEC Chairman-elect Gary Gensler also issued strong comments: next year, they will accelerate the development of token classification frameworks, the Project Crypto plan, and expand the scope of innovation exemptions. Compared to his predecessor, this is a 180-degree turn in attitude.

Logically, these should be solid positive signals, but the market is not buying it. Why? Because the FOMC meeting hasn't yet taken place, and no one dares to gamble.

Institutions have already begun a "strategic retreat." On-chain data shows Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, while the balances of USDT and USDC are skyrocketing. Hedge funds are acting more directly: converting funds into stablecoins and waiting for clearer signals. The movement of funding rates is also replaying last year's August-October pattern — before the meeting, bullish traders leverage heavily, pushing rates to the ceiling; after the meeting, they quickly lose momentum, and prices plunge.

This situation now is a perfect replica of history: CME open interest remains unchanged, and whales are standing pat...