CME FedWatch Tool has just updated with the latest data, revealing a key signal.

Looking at the January interest rate decision: 73.4% of the market is betting on no change, while only 26.6% are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. This probability distribution actually explains the situation quite well—the majority of traders no longer expect any action in the short term.

Looking further ahead to March, the situation is similar. The expectation to maintain the current rate is 53.4%, with a 39.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and only 7.3% optimistic about a 50 basis point cut.

In simple terms, the market's expectation for easing policies has significantly cooled down. This shift in expectations has a considerable impact on the pricing logic of risk assets and is worth continuous attention.