The outcome of this Federal Reserve policy meeting was not surprising—there was a 25 basis point cut.

The dot plot afterward is more worth analyzing: the policymakers' outlook on the interest rate path remains exactly the same as three months ago, still expecting a 25 basis point cut next year. In other words, the pace of rate cuts in 2025 will be much slower than this year.

What’s more interesting is that there was a clear disagreement within the committee. This time, three officials voted against the 25 basis point cut. Why? Because the current situation is quite awkward: inflation is not coming down, and the labor market is clearly weakening. The voting members are deeply divided on the issue of "whether to prioritize inflation or employment," making this meeting one of the most contentious in recent years.

Some might say, since the Fed chair will be replaced in May next year, there could be a major policy shift? Actually, it’s not that simple. The chair only has one vote in the FOMC, and unless the new government can replace more voting members, simply changing the chair will hardly fundamentally alter the decision-making direction.

Therefore, given the current situation, the expectation for rate cuts next year is not very optimistic. The market may need to adjust its expectations for a loosening cycle.