#数字资产生态回暖 When Ethereum broke 3000, I was pondering another question—why does the market keep falling even after all positive news has been priced in?

Yesterday at around 2 a.m., the price suddenly surged to 3445. The anxiety on the other side of the screen spread quickly: the market is doomed, all good news has been realized, it can’t go higher. But I saw another side of it—each such dump is often a critical point for the main players to complete their chip accumulation.

Why do I judge it this way?

Just look at the heat map. The liquidations of BTC and ETH are concentrated on the long side, with green bars occupying almost half of the screen. What does this indicate? The main players are buying low and selling high, and the market sentiment is being harvested. A wave of long positions gets squeezed out, and the price retraces to build a bottom—this is the most classic rhythm.

The ETH spike touched 3175, precisely at the confluence of the previous trend line and moving averages. This is no coincidence; it’s textbook-level technical support.

Breaking 3000? That’s a test of the market. If it really breaks down, you won’t even get a chance to rebound.

A few friends watching my analysis at that time asked me what I knew in advance.

Honestly, this isn’t some divine prediction.

Eight years of candlestick data, countless cycles of bull and bear markets, the pitfalls I’ve stepped into—these accumulate to form my judgment. As long as the structure isn’t broken, the trend line remains intact, and chips are still in the accumulation stage, the main players still have floating chips to shake out. The prerequisites for the next major wave are basically all aligned.

Whether you can catch that wave depends on whether you can keep up with the rhythm. This market has never lacked participants who realize things late; what’s missing are those who dare to jump in during panic.

The current market has entered a phase I’m most familiar with. The upcoming deployment points and position pacing—these details will unfold gradually. If you’re reading this analysis, you’re already ahead of most retail traders by a large margin. The market won’t wait for anyone, and the cost of being a step late is often missing the entire move.