#数字资产生态回暖 The Federal Reserve has finally cut interest rates, but Bitcoin has fallen—what's really going on?

If there's one thing that hits the crypto circle hard recently, it's this reversal from "good news to bad news." Early yesterday morning, when the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, many were ready and waiting for a rally. But what happened? Bitcoin suddenly shot up to 94,000 and then swiftly dropped back toward 90,000.

This kind of movement is truly heartbreaking—it feels like falling from cloud nine to the bottom of the valley, something many have experienced.

The problem is, market enthusiasm for this rate cut has long faded. On the surface, the rate cut aligns with expectations, but in reality, the entire logical chain has changed. The Fed is internally divided, with the probability of further rate cuts in the next few months being very slim. At most, there might be one more in 2026 and 2027 each, and this pace can't accelerate. Powell pointed towards employment data, implying that the rate cut cycle might be coming to an end.

Without sustained liquidity support, the market's biggest problem is a lack of new funds. Retail investors have lost enthusiasm, major players are on hold, Japan is raising interest rates, and funds are starting to pull back during the Christmas season—the entire macro environment is telling you that money will become increasingly tight.

In the short term, unless there's unexpected good news, the market will struggle to pick up. Looking on the negative side, if more bad news comes out, Bitcoin could test 80,000. The contradictions in the dot plot and Powell's inconsistent words and actions reflect a lack of clear direction among decision-makers, further fueling market volatility.

In the long run, the logic of the crypto market remains intact, but short-term trading space has been severely compressed. The key going forward is which economic data will truly trigger a breakout—this warrants continuous attention.