The last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting of 2025 has concluded. Honestly, the market impact was not as significant as expected.

How to read the dot plot? Compared to the September version, there is some loosening, but it still falls short of market expectations. But don’t worry, the real turning point will be in June 2026—by then, Powell will have handed over to Hsu, and the new chair’s dot plot will be more worth watching.

This time, Powell’s speech revealed several signals:
First, he is not very interested in cutting rates in January, and this attitude is quite clear. But on other fronts, he’s not so hawkish—he remains somewhat optimistic about inflation, with the core logic being: as long as tariffs are settled, commodity inflation is likely to be a short-lived wave and won’t continue to ferment. More importantly, he repeatedly emphasized two points: if inflation really comes down, rate cuts will accelerate; if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Fed will step in (which means rate cuts).

The next month will be a data-driven game. Worse labor data → higher probability of rate cuts; lower inflation data → higher probability of rate cuts. This logical chain remains unchanged. Additionally, the Supreme Court might announce its ruling on Trump’s tariffs case in January, and then we’ll see the market’s reaction. Frankly, today’s Powell performance was much more moderate than in December last year—that one was truly hawkish. He even predicted significant GDP growth in 2026.

As for Bitcoin: the turnover rate remains quite active, mainly because investors are betting at this critical juncture. After today, the turnover rate is expected to gradually decline, as the activity of short-term investors is already reflected in the data.