#以太坊行情技术解读 Lowering interest rates unexpectedly leads to a sell-off. What is really going on behind the scenes?

Today, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut. Normally, this should be bullish for risk assets. However, Bitcoin responded unexpectedly in the opposite direction, catching many off guard. This isn’t market madness, but a classic case of the "expectation trap."

**Expectations had already been exhausted**

To be honest, the market had already digested this rate cut half a month ago. Institutional investors had提前布局, and began unloading their holdings at the moment the news was released. The sharp decline you see is often just them dumping their positions as they exit. On the surface, it looks like "bullish signals are fulfilled," but in reality, it’s "overextended expectations" — everyone shifted from buyers to sellers at the same time.

**Only one rate cut in 2026, the bull market dream is shattered**

The key information is hidden in the details of the press conference. The Fed hinted that there might only be a single rate cut in 2026, breaking the market’s幻想 of持续宽松 next year. Previously, people were pondering what continuous easing would bring, but now they’ve been冷水泼下 — the outlook has shifted from optimism to tightening expectations. This剧烈的 expectation reversal inevitably triggers capital撤退.

**Internal disagreements reveal real signals**

Even more noteworthy is the出现 of 3 dissenting votes in this voting round, which is rare. This indicates that the Fed’s内部 consensus on rate cuts is not坚固, with some甚至坚持不该降. Behind this分歧, there are genuine concerns about inflation rebounding. In the current context of high全球政策不确定性,敏感资产 like Bitcoin naturally become emotional outlets.

**Core logic: disappointment is the real killer**

The market’s biggest fear isn’t bad news, but "expectations falling short." This rate cut seemed like a糖, but upon closer inspection, it was包裹着三重陷阱: overextended expectations,未来紧缩, and internal disagreements. Bitcoin’s decline essentially reflects the collective破灭 of investors’ "liquidity fantasies."

Understanding this logic is key to avoiding similar pitfalls in the next market cycle.