#美联储降息 Just finished watching the 1-hour ETH candlestick chart. This market is definitely telling a bearish story. As someone who trades long-term, I need to lay out these observations today——the bearish pattern has already formed, don't casually chase the bottom.

**Several negative signals on the technical side:**

The Bollinger Bands are tearing downward, and the price is repeatedly testing support at the lower band (around 3196). This is a typical sign of accelerated decline. The MACD green histogram is still expanding, with a value of -47.08, indicating that the bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. Yesterday's close was at 3188, still below the lower band. If today’s close cannot regain the 3200 level, ETH will likely test support at 3150 or lower. For those expecting a rebound, wake up—against the trend, any small rise could be a trap set for bulls.

**On-chain confirmation signals:**

The on-chain indicators I monitor show that large addresses continue to offload, and inflows to exchanges are increasing, indicating that selling pressure has not fully released. Funding rates have dropped into negative territory, showing market sentiment is clearly cold, which aligns with the technical signals.

**Lack of reasons for a rally:**

There are no substantial positive catalysts recently to stimulate a rebound, and macro fundamentals haven't shown any new movements. Without a catalyst, ETH’s reversal will be difficult—it's like an engine without fuel, naturally sliding downward.

**My judgment:**

I remain firmly bearish. I've been warning of risks since last week, and now all three dimensions—technical, on-chain, and fundamentals—are pointing in the same direction. Don’t come to me with “it’s been falling too much, it must rebound”—that’s emotional reasoning. Successful trading follows the trend, not expectations.

**Operational suggestions:**

Stay patient in the short term, don’t blindly buy the dip. Continue to wait until the price stabilizes above 3200 before considering action. Medium to long-term investors can look for lower entry points. Good opportunities don’t run away; those who miss out are always the ones who can’t wait.

Give a like, share it around, and let’s wait together for this correction to pass. See you when the next market update comes.