#数字资产生态回暖 The Fed's decision to cut interest rates this time caught the market off guard. It was the third rate cut, but then they released a "dot plot"—the number of rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 was nearly halved. The market shifted from euphoria to calm reflection in an instant, and the dovish expectations were abruptly shattered.

$BTC's reaction is textbook. After the announcement, the price surged to 94,500 like it was on adrenaline, then quickly dumped. Within less than an hour, it oscillated between 92,000 and 94,500, with an amplitude easily exceeding 2,500 points. Now, with the rebound weakening, it has returned to the sensitive level of 90,000.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is stuck in a dilemma. On the daily chart, the correction starting from the November high of 107,000 has formed a classic bearish flag pattern. The recent rebound was just halted at 93,000. If it effectively breaks below 90,000, it could theoretically move toward a deeper target of 67,000-68,000. Both RSI and ACD indicators point to the same signal: this rebound is just restoring the oversold condition; the downward trend has not truly ended.

However, there are also interesting signals on the other side. A rare "three-candle down" pattern appears on the weekly chart, which typically indicates that sellers are exhausted and a reversal may be imminent. To confirm this pattern, two conditions must be met: first, a weekly bullish candle appears, and then the price breaks above its high. Once confirmed, the 94,000-96,000 zone becomes the first critical line of defense. If Bitcoin can stabilize above this level on the weekly chart, the upward space could open wide, potentially reaching as high as 141,000.

Ultimately, $BTC is short-term tugging between support at 90,000 and resistance at 94,000. Until a clear winner emerges, wide-range oscillation remains the norm.