Last night, Powell's 50 billion reverse repurchase operation appeared to be a routine move on the surface, but in fact it was a form of "hidden easing." Based on liquidity transmission effects, this is roughly equivalent to a 3 basis point cut in interest rates. Coupled with the officially announced 25 basis point rate cut, the market's actual perception of monetary easing is close to 28 basis points.



But the focus is not on these 28 basis points themselves. What truly matters is—the timing, location, and implications of this move within the current market sentiment environment, which are far from being as simple as the literal words suggest.

The real target of this 50 billion is not to stimulate economic growth, nor to give away benefits to risk assets. Its aim is the Treasury market.

The current situation on the table is this: the stock market is blazing hot, with funds rushing into high-risk assets; meanwhile, the Treasury market is cold as winter, with yields soaring to ridiculous levels, and new bond issuance nearly ignored; the fiscal side is under immense pressure from interest expenses, making the Ministry of Finance gasp for breath; banks and pension funds holding long-duration bonds are still struggling with unrealized losses on their books; and the Treasury system, which underpins the dollar's creditworthiness, is at a dangerous critical point.

Therefore, last night's operation is actually a combination strategy: publicly, to keep interest rates at 25 basis points to stabilize expectations; secretly, to inject 3 basis points of liquidity through reverse repos—ensuring the system remains connected. Maintaining a hawkish stance verbally is to cool down an overheated stock market; but the real goal is to force funds out of equities and redirect them back into the Treasury market.

Because an overheated stock market won't shake the foundation, but a collapse of the Treasury market would be fatal.

When stocks fall, retail and institutional investors' accounts suffer; but if the Treasury market issues problems, it threatens the entire US financial structure—fiscal financing capacity, bank balance sheets, insurance allocations, pension payments, and the dollar's reserve currency status—all will weaken accordingly.

So, that 50 billion is not traditional "money printing," but an emergency blood transfusion for the Treasury market. The message it sends is clear: the Fed can tolerate cooling the stock market, but it will never sit idly by as the Treasury market continues to bleed.

In simple terms: suppressing stocks is a means, saving the Treasury is the goal, and maintaining the dollar's credit system is the ultimate objective.
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MetaverseMortgagevip
· 2025-12-14 00:57
Boss Bao's move is truly brilliant; surface-level rate cuts are actually saving government bonds... The stock market needs to cool down, but the bond market must absolutely not crash.
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MysteryBoxOpenervip
· 2025-12-13 18:22
So basically, the Federal Reserve is still playing a financial tightrope walk, balancing currency stability on one side and rescuing the bond market on the other. Retail investors should just sit back and watch the show.
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LayerZeroHerovip
· 2025-12-13 17:27
So this is secretly rescuing the debt market, pretending to cut interest rates while actually shifting attention? That's quite a trick.
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MetaRecktvip
· 2025-12-11 05:56
It just dawned on me now, I previously thought it was just a routine rate cut, but it turns out they are saving government bonds. This move is indeed brilliant. Spot on, the Federal Reserve is playing psychological warfare with retail investors. If the government bonds really collapse, it would be a huge problem, much deeper than the stock market declines. Surface hawkish stance with covert liquidity, this tactic is old but effective. It feels like the US dollar credit system is just a balloon, you can't poke it. The stock market is just a front; the real battleground is the government bonds. I think I understand now. It's the "invisible hand" again, I'm used to this kind of show.
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AirdropHustlervip
· 2025-12-11 05:56
If government bonds can't hold up, it's game over—that's what Powell is truly afraid of. This move is interesting; it looks like a rate cut but is actually saving the bond market. The Federal Reserve is really panicking. Let the stock market burn if it wants to, but a collapse of government bonds would be on a nuclear level. Got it, it's not really for us retail investors; it's to protect the dollar's foundation. Wait, should we提前跑股市抄底国债... Is this a trap for us? Behind a bunch of data, there's just one sentence: Don't let government bonds die; the dollar must stay alive. The hawkish stance is just a cover; secretly, they're still easing. This setup is really tight and seamless. If government bonds can't be saved, then what about economic recovery? We're really at the limit now. Five hundred billion is just the appetizer, I bet there's a big move coming next. I get this logic; as long as government bonds don't break, retail investors losing blood doesn't matter.
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SocialFiQueenvip
· 2025-12-11 05:43
Wow, this move is really brilliant. Surface-level rate cuts but secretly rescuing bonds. Powell's move is so dirty.
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SchrodingerPrivateKeyvip
· 2025-12-11 05:40
Oh no, now I understand, Powell is playing "covering everything with one hand" Want to crash the stock market but also afraid of a government bond collapse, trying to have it both ways Basically, it's still a gamble, betting that retail investors and institutions will obediently move their money into bonds If government bonds really get into trouble, the entire dollar system will need a reorganization, and that's the real big risk No wonder this round of operations feels a bit suspicious, like they are all trying to prolong the life of the bond market The Federal Reserve just wants a soft landing, the conclusion is: no one can fail, but the order matters a lot This reverse repurchase scale doesn't look big, but the signal is very strong Betting that the bond market won't crash so soon, it feels like they're just patching one hole by opening another
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NFTBlackHolevip
· 2025-12-11 05:38
Oh my, it's that old trick of "one thing on the surface and another behind the scenes" again, I'm tired of hearing it... --- Are government bonds really going to collapse? I feel it's even more deadly than a stock market crash. --- Basically, the Federal Reserve is playing with printing power. Anyone who believes it is just being naive. --- 500 billion infusion into government bonds, so when will our crypto circle get a turn? Haha. --- This logic always feels a bit far-fetched to me. When the stock market overheats, raising interest rates directly solves it. Why beat around the bush? --- The dollar system is about to fall apart. Hurry up and get on the Bitcoin train; it's no joke. --- No wonder the US stock market has been falling recently; it turns out it's all part of a plan. Retail investors are always the last to know.
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