#数字资产生态回暖 Ethereum's early trading today is just as frustrating as Bitcoin. It surged to 3440 in the early hours, then turned around and dropped to 3320, and this morning it even broke below the 3300 level, now struggling around 3200. To be honest, the previous signs of relative strength have mostly been wiped out by the overall market, and now it's just moving down together with Bitcoin.

The technical picture has been battered quite badly. The 3400 and 3300 levels were consecutively broken, and the daily rebound pattern is starting to fall apart. The previous "higher low" also seems unsustainable.

Looking downward, the 3200 zone needs to be watched closely, along with the 50-day moving average and previous areas of heavy trading to see if they can hold. If those give way, the 3050 to 3100 range will need to be defended. On the rebound side, 3300 has now shifted from support to resistance, with even greater resistance above at 3400.

A somewhat reassuring piece of news is that Ethereum's reserves on centralized exchanges have hit multi-year lows, now accounting for only about 8.7% of the total supply, indicating limited selling pressure. However, given the current macro risks, this fundamental advantage being short-term suppressed is normal.

Another indicator to watch is Ethereum’s unrealized net profit and loss (NPL), which has surged to 0.296, entering the "optimistic to anxious" zone. Holders are seeing profits on paper, and it’s inevitable that some will want to take profits. During this upward movement of $ETH, a few dips might be triggered by sell-offs.