#加密生态动态追踪 The Federal Reserve decision has just been announced, and the crypto market responded with volatility—$BTC once dropped below $88,000 from $92,000, with over $400 million in liquidations across the network. The logic behind this decline is worth analyzing.

**Policy Signal Interpretation**

The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut to the 3.5%-3.75% range, marking the third rate cut this year. On the surface, these are positive signals, but the key lies in the Chair's subsequent remarks—only one rate cut is planned for 2026, with a pace far below market expectations. Although inflation has risen back to 2.8%, excluding tariffs, it approaches the 2% target. Meanwhile, employment is under pressure, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, expected to reach 4.5% next year. This "data-driven" statement completely shattered dovish expectations.

**Short-term Market Outlook**

The old trick of "selling the fact" reappears. Liquidity expectation reversal impacts the market more sharply than the rate cut itself, catching leveraged traders off guard. In the next week or so, $BTC is likely to fluctuate between 85,000 and 88,000. If technical support is broken, it may test the 80,000-82,000 zone. Pre-Christmas trading is unlikely to see a major rally; swing trading is more prudent than holding through the volatility.

**Medium to Long-term Outlook**

The rate cut cycle is not over yet. Quantitative easing (QT) has paused, and the fundamental liquidity environment has not worsened. From now until January-March, $BTC has a good chance to return above 95,000-100,000, especially with potential tax cuts and favorable administrative measures for cryptocurrencies under the new government, which could reignite market enthusiasm. The bull market's main rally story is not over; a new high in 2026 is quite possible, but it will likely be accompanied by 2-3 corrections of 20%-30%. This is normal rhythm, not a bear market signal.

**Risk Reminder**

Contract traders should review their leverage exposure. Instead of hoping to hold contracts at high levels, it’s better to trade flexibly in swings, controlling single-position risk and averaging overall costs with confirmed swing gains. The bull market trend remains unchanged; last night's plunge was just a false alarm—fasten your seatbelt and continue with this trend.