#BTC与代币化贵金属对比 12.11 Bitcoin Midday Observation: Institutional Support vs. Short Squeeze

1. Three Underlying Currents in the Market

From the capital perspective, the spot ETF led by BlackRock saw a net inflow of $193 million on December 10, bringing the total ETF inflow to $224 million — but this doesn't mean a continuous rise. The entire ETF market is still in a trend of net outflows; institutions are indeed supporting the market with sizable moves, but they are not aggressively going long. This cautious attitude is evident: cautious.

On the short side, pressure is significant. Over the past month, short liquidations reached $3.66 billion, nearly 50% higher than long liquidations. Currently, the price is hovering around the key level of 90,000, and shorts are feeling squeezed, with reverse pressure building up.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's rate cut has been implemented, but hawkish tones remain. The US dollar index has rebounded sharply in a V-shape, putting pressure on BTC. Interestingly, US stocks and gold are rising in tandem, and overall risk assets are still attracting funds. This misalignment creates a complex environment for the crypto market—neither purely bullish nor bearish.

2. Technical Support Levels

On the 4-hour chart, the MA20 moving average is holding firmly around 90,500. The previous low at 89,500 has already validated strong support. The current price at 90,200 is within a range of 89,500 to 91,800, so both bulls and bears still hold some influence.

This afternoon, the market is likely to experience a "narrow-range consolidation + weak rebound" pattern — not a sharp decline, nor a strong rally. However, resistance at 91,800 to 92,000 is quite tight — ETF inflows are cooling off, and the USD rebound is exerting pressure. Unless trading volume suddenly increases, it will be difficult to break above 92,000.

3. Practical Trading Reference (Levels can be used directly)

For bulls entering, consider a small position in the 9,000 to 9,030 range, with position size limited to under 20%. The prerequisite is that 1-hour volume must increase by over 15%; beware of fake support. If the price directly breaks below the strong support at 89,500, do not enter; wait for signs of stabilization around 89,000.

Stop-loss set at 89,200 — if it drops below, exit immediately. Once support fails, subsequent chain reactions could be fierce. Take profit in two stages: the first at 91,000 (short-term minor resistance), and the second at 91,800 (the demarcation point between bulls and bears). Exit gradually, avoid greed.

The market is still waiting for definitive signals. Institutions are holding funds, and short pressure persists — it all depends on how these three forces will battle.