#美联储降息 December 11 Afternoon BTC Market Observation

Key Points to Watch for Support Logic

Institutions are still supporting the market but are cautious——Spot ETF saw a net inflow of $224 million yesterday, with Blackstone alone investing $193 million. It sounds impressive, but overall ETF net outflows are still ongoing, indicating that big funds are conservative—have a bottom line but lack enthusiasm.

The bears are being squeezed hard——In the past month, short positions have been liquidated to $3.66 billion, nearly 50% higher than longs. Currently, with the price near the critical point of 90,000, the risk of a short squeeze has always been present, providing hidden momentum for the bulls to rebound.

Macro factors are fighting each other——The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates but also issued hawkish rhetoric. The US dollar index rebounded in a V-shape, putting pressure on BTC; meanwhile, US stocks and gold are rising simultaneously, showing risk appetite remains.

Technical support is present——On the 4-hour chart, the MA20 moving average around 90,500 forms a dynamic support, and the previous low of 89,500 has verified the strength of support.

**Current Situation Outlook**

The price is stuck at 90,200 within the core range of 89,500 to 91,800. With institutions supporting and short positions being squeezed, a rebound has a basis. From now until 4:30 PM, the most likely scenario is narrow-range consolidation with a weak rebound, not a sharp decline. However, the area around 91,800 to 92,000 is a key resistance zone from previous high-volume trading. ETF fund inflow slowing and the dollar's rebound pressure make a volume breakout above 91,800–92,000 unlikely in the short term.

**Trading Strategy**

Look for two conditions to enter——Bullish traders can try small positions in the 9,000 to 9,030 range, with no single order exceeding 20% of the total position. But only act if the 1-hour trading volume increases by at least 15% to avoid false support. If the price breaks below the strong support at 89,500, immediately exit and wait for a true stabilization near 89,000.

Strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit——Stop-loss is set at 89,200. If breached, close all positions immediately, as support failure could trigger chain reactions. For take-profit, two levels: first at 91,000 to take partial profits against short-term resistance, and second at 91,800 to close the position and mark the dividing line between bulls and bears.