Goldman Sachs major forecast: By 2026, gold aims for $4,900, as safe-haven assets usher in a super cycle?

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for gold prices in its latest report, raising the target price for December 2026 from $4,300 per ounce to $4,900. This adjustment is based on sustained capital inflows that have driven gold higher by 17% since August 26, including inflows into Western ETFs and potential central bank purchases.

01 Forecast Adjustment

Goldman Sachs analysts noted in the report that, despite the already high starting point, they predict a 23% upside potential by the end of 2026.

This forecast is based on several core factors: central bank purchases, interest rate changes, and diversification needs of the private sector.

Between 2025 and 2026, Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to average between 70 and 80 tons annually. Emerging market central banks are likely to continue reallocating their reserves toward gold for structural diversification.

Meanwhile, monetary policy in the United States also supports gold. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 100 basis points by mid-2026, which typically benefits gold prices.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the net risk value of the upgraded gold price forecast remains tilted to the upside, as the private sector’s shift toward smaller, diversified gold markets may push ETF holdings above levels predicted based on interest rate forecasts.

02 Consensus Among the Big Four Banks

Goldman Sachs is not the only Wall Street institution optimistic about gold. In fact, the four largest banks globally — Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase — all forecast gold to reach a price range of $4,900 to $5,300 by 2026.

Bank of America has a target of $5,000 per ounce, primarily based on expanding U.S. deficits, ongoing global liquidity, and low investor engagement with gold.

Deutsche Bank forecasts $4,950 per ounce, believing that central bank accumulation, completed speculative adjustments, and solid long-term technical structures will drive prices higher.

JPMorgan’s forecast is the most aggressive, reaching $5,300 per ounce, citing gold’s renewed role as a reserve currency, declining real returns on traditional assets, and decreasing trust in fiat currencies worldwide.

03 Driving Factors

Global central banks have become key participants in the gold market. Gold’s share of global reserves has surged from 13% in 2022 to 22% in 2025 — the largest shift in modern history.

This official sector demand has created a “rock-solid bottom” for gold.

The interest rate environment is also moving in a favorable direction for gold. As market expectations for Fed rate cuts increase, gold becomes more attractive relative to bonds, cash, or savings products.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and currency devaluation risks are also prompting institutional and individual investors to increase allocations to gold and related ETFs.

Goldman Sachs’s report highlights that Western ETF inflows and potential central bank purchases are persistent factors within its pricing framework, effectively elevating the starting point of its price forecasts.

04 Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market

Contrasting with the steady upward expectation for gold, the cryptocurrency market experienced intense volatility on December 11. After the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin briefly surged before plunging across the board.

Bitcoin spiked from $92,900 to $94,500 but soon plummeted, reaching a low around $92,000. As of December 11, Bitcoin was quoted at $91,980, down 0.77%.

Ethereum also experienced similar volatility, briefly surging to $3,440 before dropping sharply to around $3,320. Other cryptocurrencies such as Cardano, XRP, and Dogecoin fell more than 3%.

This sharp volatility led to a total liquidation of $302 million in crypto derivatives, with 114,600 traders liquidated. Long positions were liquidated for $166 million, and short positions for $136 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid-BTC-USD, valued at $23.185 million.

05 Market Divergence and Institutional Revisions

In response to market volatility, major financial institutions are reassessing their cryptocurrency forecasts. Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Jeff Kendrick, significantly downgraded his Bitcoin forecast.

The bank now estimates Bitcoin’s year-end price at around $100,000, sharply down from the previous forecast of $200,000.

Kendrick explained that the change in target prices was mainly triggered by recent Bitcoin sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping about 27% from its early October peak.

“Price movements have prompted us to revise our Bitcoin price forecasts,” he said. He added that Standard Chartered believes large Bitcoin holders’ buying activity has “run its course,” although ETF inflows may “periodically” pick up again.

In contrast, the gold market has shown greater stability. Goldman Sachs believes that, although starting higher, the 23% price increase outlook for gold by 2026 remains largely unchanged.

06 Safe-Haven and Risk Assets

The differing market performances of gold and cryptocurrencies highlight the roles of different asset classes in investment portfolios. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold generally performs steadily during uncertain market conditions, whereas cryptocurrencies exhibit high volatility.

For investors, understanding the different drivers of these assets is crucial. Gold prices are influenced by central bank policies, interest rate environments, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations.

Cryptocurrency markets are more affected by technological developments, regulatory environments, market liquidity, and investor sentiment.

It’s worth noting that Goldman Sachs’s optimistic outlook on gold is not without risks. Factors that could slow gold’s rally include a strong rebound in global equities, an unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve, and central bank pauses in high-price environments.

However, Goldman Sachs believes these risks, while real, are insufficient to outweigh the long-term structural bullish drivers.

Similarly, the cryptocurrency market faces its own challenges. Recent Bitcoin declines have been driven by various bearish factors, including low market liquidity, uncertainty over rate cuts fueling safe-haven sentiment, and speculation that major corporate buyers of Bitcoin may be forced to sell some tokens.

Future Outlook

As of December 11, Bitcoin briefly broke above $94,000 before falling back to around $90,000; Ethereum also declined to about $3,200. Gold prices continue to steadily approach Goldman Sachs’s target of $4,900, supported by increasing central bank gold reserves and continuous ETF inflows.

When asked about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, U.S. President Trump said the magnitude was too small: “The adjustment is ‘quite small, it should be doubled, at least doubled.’” He also criticized Fed Chair Powell as “rigid” and “stubborn.”