Powell speaks again.

Every word feels like a ticking time bomb, and global capital holds its breath listening.

The labor market is cooling down, but inflation is still fighting. Rates are said to be approaching neutral, but will they cut or not? When will they cut? No one dares to make promises. The Fed itself doesn’t have a script; each FOMC meeting is walking a tightrope.

# Let’s look at some key signals first

**Economic Status: a Tale of Two Extremes**
Growth remains relatively steady, but inflation is eye-popping. Commodity prices soar while the service sector is cooling. Consumers are still spending, and AI investments are burning hot. But employment data is starting to lag — and the actual situation might be even uglier than the reports suggest.

**Policy Stance: Taking it One Step at a Time**
The FOMC won’t pre-announce a roadmap; they’re completely data-driven. Reserve levels are nearly sufficient, but government bonds still need to be purchased. Internal debates have already started: some advocate for keeping rates steady, others push for rate cuts, and disagreements are out in the open. The 2026 GDP forecast has been raised, but risk weights are clearly changing.

**Things Hidden in the Details**
"Ample reserves" plus ongoing bond purchases? Liquidity is slowly building up. But every move is cautious, like disarming a bomb — each data point must be verified three times. Expectations for rate cuts exist, but don’t expect a one-shot move. In the coming months, every data release could stir up waves.

# What does this mean for cryptocurrencies?

Medium-term bullish, short-term turbulent.

The liquidity faucet is being turned slightly, but the Fed is watching three key factors closely:
- Will tariffs reignite inflation?
- How much of the unemployment rate data is distorted?
- Will the economy overheat and spiral out of control suddenly?

**In plain language:**
Rate cuts are definitely coming, but they’ll be gradual — no sudden flood. Crypto markets can long enjoy liquidity dividends, but in the short term, be prepared to be driven by data.

Next non-farm payrolls, next CPI report — any one of these could trigger a rally. The market is currently like a tight string; a gentle touch could send it vibrating.