Today, many people in the market can't understand one thing: the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, so why did Bitcoin not rise but instead fall? Is the news fake?

Actually, the news isn't fake, but this "positive" is essentially a trap. Spend a few minutes reading this, and you'll understand the logic behind it.

**First, the conclusion: Expectations Fulfilled ≠ Genuine Good News**

This time, the Federal Reserve did cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range. But the problem is, the market had already guessed this outcome long ago.

For example, your mom promised to take you to the amusement park last month. Today she actually took you there. Would you be especially excited? No, because you were mentally prepared. The same applies to the crypto market—smart money had already positioned itself two weeks ago. When the news was announced today, they took profits and exited, naturally causing selling pressure that pushed the price down.

**The real fatal issue is that future expectations have collapsed**

What's even more brutal is that the Fed hinted this time that there might only be one rate cut in 2026.

This is the core reason for the sharp decline. Previously, everyone thought there would be multiple rate cuts next year, with market liquidity remaining loose, and cryptocurrencies would usher in a big rally. But Powell directly poured cold water on this: don’t expect multiple rate cuts next year, at most one.

The sudden tightening of liquidity expectations means the anticipated bull market is gone, and funds will naturally retreat. The market always prices in the future, not the current small gains.

**Internal disagreements reveal a bigger risk**

There's also a detail many people didn't notice: three Fed officials opposed the rate cut, and some even advocated keeping rates unchanged.

In the past, rate decisions were usually unanimous. Now, the clear split indicates that internal concerns about inflation are intensifying—especially considering the potential policy changes brought by the new government taking office soon.

What does this mean for Bitcoin? It suggests that after this rate cut, there may be no more easing policies in the short term. Once a tightening expectation forms, risk assets are the first to be affected.

**Why did it fall? Ultimately, there are three reasons:**

1. The positive news has already been priced in; today's move is just a formality;
2. Future policy expectations have sharply reversed; next year’s rate cuts will be far fewer than previously anticipated;
3. Internal disagreements within the Fed have become apparent, significantly reducing the space for future easing.

What markets fear most is never bad news itself, but that reality turns out worse than expectations. This rate cut seems like good news on the surface, but in fact, it kills the imagination for the future. No wonder prices didn't rise.