The last FOMC meeting of 2025 has concluded, and market reactions have been relatively restrained. Compared to the dot plot in September, which showed some signs of easing, the expectations still fall short of market reality. Currently, traders are focusing on 2026—the first dot plot after the new chair's confirmation (to be released in June)—that will be the real variable.

Powell's speech this time didn't contain any surprises. He expressed reservations about a rate cut in January but was much more optimistic about inflation. He believes that the tariffs already in place might only cause a one-time shock to goods inflation and are not a long-term factor. Implicitly, he indicated that as long as inflation continues downward, the Fed might cut rates several more times; if employment data weaken, they will act decisively.

Next month, the market's direction will mainly depend on data. The softer the employment figures, the higher the likelihood of rate cuts; similarly, more moderate inflation data will have the same effect. There is also an uncertainty—by January, the Supreme Court might rule on certain tariffs, which could influence market sentiment. Overall, this tone is more moderate than December last year and shows a lot of optimism regarding economic growth in 2026.

On-chain data shows a noticeable increase in turnover rate recently, indicating that investors are actively betting during policy windows. Once the ripple effects of the FOMC are absorbed, this indicator is expected to gradually decline. Short-term traders remain active, and many investors who built positions below $90,000 have already taken profits.

The current distribution of holdings remains relatively healthy, with no signs of stability issues. Investors trapped at high levels are not panicking and selling off. The upcoming market trend will still be driven by economic data—if expectations for a rate cut in January continue to heat up, market enthusiasm is likely to be sustained. The key is to closely monitor the economic data released this month and see how it reshapes expectations for interest rate movements.

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