#BTC与代币化贵金属对比 The Federal Reserve has just unleashed a "combo punch"—cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and announcing a monthly purchase of $40 billion in U.S. Treasuries. The market is cheering, and many analysts are saying the Christmas rally is about to take off.

But wait, the data seems to tell a different story.

This year's end is a special time window: the Christmas holiday combined with the annual delivery date, and liquidity in exchanges has become extremely tight. The activity of coins like $LUNA, $ZEC, and $DOGE continues to decline, indicating that there really isn't much money left in the market. Want to restart the bull market? The momentum is far weaker than expected.

Even more bizarre is the performance of the options market. By the end of December, options positions once exceeded 50% concentration. Bitcoin's "pain point" hovers around $100,000, and Ethereum is pressed at $3,200. What does such extreme concentration usually indicate? The market's volatility expectations are suppressed, and the risk of a turning point is accumulating in the shadows. In other words, if a sudden event occurs, the market could unexpectedly reverse.

Sentiment is also quite weak—most institutional views still see a slow, downward trend. Poor liquidity and low sentiment have drained all the vigor from the market. Industry analyst Adam bluntly states, "It's clearly too early to promote a return to a bull market." Plus, many delayed economic data releases haven't come out yet, and there's a risk that "excessive easing" could backfire, making the risk unpredictable.

In summary: policies are indeed easing, but the market hasn't truly caught this wave of good news yet. In the short term, volatility may be the norm. Don't be blinded by the good news—be aware of the risks of a potential reversal.

What do you think? Will this round of Fed easing ignite market enthusiasm, or will it only bring fleeting sparks? Share your thoughts in the comments.