#数字资产生态回暖 Bitcoin Market Analysis

Last week, after the interest rate cut news came out, BTC surged to 94,500. However, the Federal Reserve shifted to a hawkish tone, causing the bulls to collapse immediately. The price fell to below 91,000 before stabilizing. The daily chart shows a brewing "bear flag" pattern, indicating a consolidation during a downtrend. The short-term resistance is at 93,000 as a potential top, with 90,000 serving as support below. The MACD has lost momentum, and RSI has fallen from overbought levels, clearly showing the bulls losing strength. The overall market is in a high-level oscillation phase.

How to operate specifically? Two approaches:

**Bullish outlook**: Look for opportunities in the 89,500-90,000 range, with a stop-loss at 88,900 (exit if loss exceeds 600 points). Target 91,000-92,000; if broken, continue chasing 93,500. Risk-reward ratio of 1:2 is quite good.

**Bearish outlook**: Short positions at 93,000-93,500, with a stop-loss at 94,000 (loss of 500 points). First target: 91,500-92,000; if broken again, look at 91,000. Same 1:2 ratio applies.

Ethereum Technical Review

ETH also surged and then retraced along with BTC, reaching a high of around 3,450 before dropping back. Now it stabilizes around 3,200. The five consecutive bullish candles' upward momentum has broken down. From a technical perspective, the MACD on the daily chart previously showed a volume increase, but now it has contracted. The four-hour chart also shows a divergence at the top, indicating a short-term support at 3,220, with resistance zones at 3,400-3,450. The recent rally was driven by policy expectations. Now that the policy signals have shifted, the short-term phase is one of oscillation and balance.

Two operational strategies:

**Bullish approach**: Enter at 3,150-3,130, with a stop-loss at 3,100 (50 points risk). Target 3,220-3,320; if broken, continue chasing 3,450. Risk-reward ratio up to 1:3.

**Bearish approach**: Short at 3,400-3,430, with a stop-loss at 3,480 (50 points risk). Targets are 3,300-3,320; if broken, look at 3,250. The ratio remains at 1:2.

**Risk reminder**: Cryptocurrency volatility is unpredictable. The above analysis is based on current market conditions and real-time judgment. When operating, always monitor live data, strictly control leverage and stop-losses, and avoid overconfidence. This is only a reference strategy and does not constitute investment advice. Profits and losses are your own responsibility.