Last month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting saw a rare scene—3 out of 12 core members voted against the majority. This was the most divided vote since 2019: some advocated for a direct 50 basis point cut, while others insisted on holding steady. The debate in the conference room was not yet over, but the market was already thrown into chaos.

Bitcoin briefly dropped below $87,000, triggering liquidation for over 220,000 accounts; but in the blink of an eye, Ethereum surged nearly 8% in one day, and on-chain data at the same time showed whale accumulation of over 47,000 Bitcoin. Behind this sense of division lies a signal more worth cautioning than price volatility.

The so-called "hawkish rate cut" sounds contradictory, but in fact, it is a product of internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve. Powell said interest rates have reached the neutral zone, but there is no consensus among factions: some are pushing for a drop below 2%, with leading successor candidate Haskett openly calling for ample room for rate cuts, while the inflation hawks are sticking to tightening policies. Goldman Sachs has already warned that the preemptive rate cut cycle might be over, with some institutions predicting a pause as early as January next year.

The consequences of policy swings are very direct—capital flowing into the crypto market can change direction at any time. The valuation logic supported by liquidity over the past two years is now undergoing a stress test.

But from another perspective, chaos also creates opportunities. When the credit foundation of traditional financial systems shakes, some funds seek alternatives, and this is when the hedging attributes of decentralized assets become prominent.

On-chain behavior has already provided an answer: in December, whales net bought 47,584 Bitcoin, reversing a seven-week consecutive selling trend; Bitcoin balances on exchanges continued to decline, with large amounts of chips transferred into custody wallets. These actions indicate that institutions are allocating with real money, not just following emotions.

On the surface, it looks like a panic moment, but in reality, capital flows have long since diversified.