#加密生态动态追踪 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest press conference revealed many key signals, and the market reaction was quite intense.

Let's first look at the policy stance: interest rates are already close to neutral levels, and the Federal Reserve is currently holding steady to observe the situation. Rate hikes? Basically ruled out. However, if economic expectations shift upward, long-term interest rates might rise accordingly — this will depend on ongoing data.

Regarding inflation, there is still upward pressure. However, Powell believes that recent overshoot is mainly due to tariff factors, which are a one-time shock. Once tariff policies are adjusted, inflation should return to around 2% target level. Of course, the peak may still fluctuate within a range of ±0.几个百分点.

On the economic fundamentals, the Fed judges that there are no signs of overheating at present. The outlook for steady growth next year remains unchanged, but they will continue to dynamically monitor data changes.

It is worth noting the risk signals on the employment front — recent months’ job gains may have been overestimated by about 60,000 jobs, and there’s a possibility of a 0.1-0.2% increase in the unemployment rate. This could weigh on market sentiment.

Regarding bond purchase plans, in the short term, the scale of Treasury bond purchases will remain at a relatively high level for reserve management, with gradual reductions over the coming months.

What’s the market outlook on futures? The general expectation is about a 55BP cut next year, with a 24.4% probability of a 25BP rate cut in January.

The response at the press conference was very intense — precious metals fluctuated sharply (silver even hit a new high), U.S. Treasury yields declined, the dollar weakened, and non-US currencies gained noticeably. Meanwhile, US stocks remained relatively strong amid volatility. Afterwards, Trump even came out to complain, feeling that the rate cut wasn’t aggressive enough.