#美联储降息 This morning's market reaction left many people confused. The entire screen was filled with "The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates," yet $BTC not only didn't see a rise, but there was a wave of decline, even a sudden dip. What's really going on? Are the news reports false?

Don't worry, let's break down these complex financial logic points and explain them in the simplest way.

**The first reason: The news itself is not new**

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut this time, keeping the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. It sounds like good news, but it's like your exam results—you parents already knew a month ago what the outcome would be and had promised to buy you a gift. Now that you finally receive the gift, are you still excited? No, because the surprise has long been gone.

Smart traders in the crypto world have already fully digested this rate cut about one or two weeks ago. The so-called "smart money" quietly built positions early on, waiting for the official announcement to take profits and exit. The result is what you see—not only did prices not rise, but there was a sell-off.

**The second reason: Future liquidity expectations have collapsed**

The most heart-wrenching part is the dot plot (interest rate forecast). Officially, it shows only one rate cut possibly in 2026, meaning the illusion of abundant future liquidity has been completely shattered.

Many traders had been dreaming: next year will be a rate-cutting cycle, the central bank will aggressively release liquidity, and a bull market is just around the corner. But Powell's statement was like pouring a bucket of cold water—perhaps only one "sweet" in the next year. Without continuous liquidity and ongoing rate declines, the hopes of the bulls are shattered. Funding costs remain high, profit-making effects are greatly reduced, and both institutions and retail traders start to flee. At this point, a few percentage points drop $BTC is perfectly reasonable.

**The third reason: Divergence within the Federal Reserve**

This voting result also speaks volumes—three members voted against the rate cut, even suggesting it shouldn't happen this time. What does this mean? It indicates internal disagreement within the Fed about future inflation trends. Especially under the new government’s governance, inflation might face new pressures.

As long as there's internal voice within the Fed shouting "stop easing," digital assets that rely on liquidity face potential threats. Many are already worried—this might truly be the last easing cycle in the near future. This "last supper" mentality is enough to make investors lock in profits promptly.

**At the end of the day, it’s just two words: expectations**

What the market fears is never the bad news itself, but "below expectations." You expected a feast of delicacies, but what’s served are leftovers and cold dishes, and the kitchen staff is still arguing—this is today’s situation. The policy was delivered, but not enough; future promises are scaled back; decision-makers are still fighting internally. These factors stack up, making a market rebound unlikely—it's only natural.

So next time you see "good news" causing a decline, don’t be confused. Ask yourself: is this a real positive, or just a "disappointing positive"? The market reactions to each are worlds apart.