Early this morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. It should have reassured the market, but instead, risk assets were冷水 poured on them by this "toothpaste squeezing" style rate cut. BTC responded with a decline, and altcoins fell even more sharply. However, market downturns often hide opportunities; here, we analyze the recent policy signals and possible future directions.

The statement reiterated that inflation remains above the target, and the employment market has faced increased downward pressure in recent months, directly removing the phrase "unemployment rate remains low"—a noteworthy change in wording. The dot plot shows no change in the median interest rate forecast, implying one rate cut each next year and the year after, well below market expectations of two cuts next year. This is a core reason for asset price pressure. On the economic outlook, GDP growth forecasts for this year and the next three years have been raised, while inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as the unemployment rate forecast for the year after, have been slightly lowered. The statement added language about weighing the "magnitude and timing" of further rate cuts, effectively setting a high threshold for Powell's remaining term (at least three more meetings), and this could even be his last rate cut during his tenure.

The Federal Reserve is indeed hawkish, but not to the extreme. Recent market comments suggested a more aggressive stance, but Powell's remarks, while firm, did not reach an extreme level. He mentioned that employment growth data might be overestimated, and actual growth since April may have turned negative; the labor market is cooling continuously, just at a more moderate pace than expected.