#加密生态动态追踪 The规律 of Bitcoin halving cycles is becoming increasingly clear — it has been more than half a year since the halving in April 2024. According to historical data, the 18th month usually marks a peak. As October approaches, $BTC indeed surged to a new all-time high of $126,200.

But what does this mean? Many believe that the top of a bull market is the starting point of a bear market. Following this logic, a long adjustment period may begin — some estimate that this bear cycle could last until the end of 2026, with $BTC prices potentially falling back to the $30,000 to $50,000 range. It does sound a bit frightening.

However, there are also more moderate views. The previous cycle saw Bitcoin's decline reach 77%, so this time it’s unlikely to be so severe. Many believe that $30,000 might be the lower limit, and breaking below that would be difficult. The Federal Reserve has recently been signaling a rate cut, which could somewhat aid market liquidity.

As for the timing of bottom-fishing, some are eyeing October 2026. If the panic index drops to around 10 then, it might be the best entry point. Others are more aggressive, planning to fully buy in only if the panic index drops below 10.

Looking at the current situation, the market has indeed experienced quite a bit of volatility. For friends who have already exited during previous adjustments, it’s more about waiting now — either trying to turn the tide with short contracts or building mental resilience, waiting for the next clear buying opportunity. Whatever the choice, staying clear-headed and patient is far more important than reckless trading.