#数字资产生态回暖 Where exactly is the boundary between bull and bear markets? Market expectations and risk negotiations after 126,200

Recent market fluctuations have sparked an interesting discussion—if the halving cycle theory holds, then Bitcoin's 18th month after the halving (this October) could be the end of this rally and the starting point of the next downturn.

Some analysts believe that $BTC is expected to reach a historic high of 126,200 USD by October 7, 2025, followed by a 12-month correction cycle, with a predicted decline to the 30,000 to 60,000 USD range by the end of 2026.

From a logical perspective, this judgment seems somewhat supported: the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, and may end its balance sheet reduction within the year. The last halving on April 20, 2024, according to the 18-month cycle, indeed points to a top around October.

What if this scenario unfolds? Comparing to the 77% drop after the previous bull market top, maintaining above 30,000 USD this time would be a "relatively moderate" adjustment. Some even speculate that 30,000 USD could become a bottom that we may never return to.

More aggressive voices suggest that when the panic index drops near 10 in October 2026, it will be a true buy-the-dip signal; if it falls below 10, it will be time to "go all in."

There are also opinions that the decline could be deeper—breaking the 2021 high of 69,000 USD, ultimately bottoming between 30,000 and 50,000 USD.

Although the market is currently volatile, opportunities never lack. The key is patience and waiting. Each phase of the cycle has its logic; staying clear-headed and disciplined often leads to a better outcome than blind optimism.

$BTC