Last night, after Powell's dovish combination punch, the market's reaction was a blow to the head. The rate cut was announced, the balance sheet expansion was increased, and the employment risks were acknowledged. So, what happened? Bitcoin surged then retraced, Ethereum was even more aggressive, plunging directly from the high of $3,447.

What does this mean? Good news is all used up and becomes bad news; the market has already overhyped expectations.

But the story isn't over. Powell handed the baton over to the data, especially the one to be released tonight at 21:30 — the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7. He made it very clear that the Federal Reserve will look at the data going forward. In other words: don’t ask me what’s next, you guys guess based on the data.

Why is a weekly data point suddenly so critical tonight?

Because it hits the most sensitive nerve right now — whether the employment market can still hold up. The logical basis for Powell's dovish stance last night is the risk of a slowdown in the labor market. He even hinted that the employment data from the previous months might have some inflated figures. The Fed’s next move on rate cuts depends heavily on whether employment truly deteriorates. And initial jobless claims are precisely the indicator that can reflect employment health in real-time.

The expected number tonight is 220,000. This figure itself is a watershed — higher indicates worsening employment, lower suggests the market isn’t that bad yet. Whichever way it goes, it will directly influence the Fed’s next actions and, in turn, affect the crypto market’s nerves.

So tonight’s data isn’t routine; it’s the real judgment day.