In 5 hours, a key number will be revealed.

Tonight at 21:30, the US will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6. This thing sounds dull, but it's like a thermometer for the labor market — when the number jumps, policy expectations have to move accordingly.

The last release was 191,000. The market is now guessing around 220,000.

The jump from 191,000 to 220,000 is quite significant. What does an increase mean? More unemployed people, a loosening job market, and possibly a change in monetary policy pace. If it really spikes to 220,000 or even higher, traders watching policy trends might need to recalculate again.

On the other hand, what if the data continues to stay below 200,000? Then the labor market remains resilient, and rate cuts? Maybe wait and see.

The most interesting thing is this uncertainty. Before the data comes out, everyone is guessing. Will it continue to maintain a strong low-unemployment state, or is it really starting to decline?

See you in 5 hours. Once this number is out, the recent market stalemate will probably stir up some waves again.