Recently, I came across a U.S. national security strategy report and found something quite interesting: the so-called "strategic retrenchment" written on paper is now actually being implemented step by step.

However, the execution has been a bit bumpy—Europe, Israel, Japan, these staunch allies are now the ones most eager to hold back the U.S. They’re all playing the same game: you, the U.S., can't just walk away; you need to maintain this security order.

Even more surreal is that those who are actually capable of cooperating with the U.S. are precisely China and Russia, which were previously under full containment. The scene is very vivid: allies desperately hold on and refuse to leave, while the U.S. has to coordinate with old adversaries to break free.

**Is this retrenchment truly real or just a bluff?**

Many people worry that this is a smokescreen—the U.S. pretends to retrench while actually preparing to strike back. But I think such concerns are a bit unnecessary.

The reason is simple: the inertia of big power strategic adjustments is too strong; reversing direction in the short term is very difficult. Look at the period from Obama’s "Pivot to Asia" in 2013 to now—over 12 years, with Democrats and Republicans taking turns in office, but the continuity of U.S.-China strategy has never broken. Such a level of shift, once initiated, is hard to turn back—because the cost of reversal is too high.

**Just watch the movements of the U.S. military**

How can you tell if the U.S. is truly retrenching? Just follow the U.S. military’s movements. During expansion phases, the military leads the way; during retrenchment, the military also withdraws first.

Let’s outline the timeline:
- August 2021: U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan (the starting point of retrenchment)
- March 2022: Federal Reserve raises interest rates + Russia-Ukraine conflict erupts
- December 2024: Assad government collapses
- August 2025: U.S. main forces withdraw from Syria
- 2026 plan: full withdrawal from Iraq + halving of troops in Okinawa (ahead of the original 2028 schedule) + reduction of European garrisons

Remember, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan was a massive effort—massive resources were poured in to cut off China-Pakistan routes and isolate land-based influence. Now that they’ve pulled out, going back is virtually impossible. Either they offer benefits or they fight, but both options are no longer feasible.

Places like Europe and Japan still have room for negotiation, but in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq—once U.S. troops leave, they’re really gone.

**The final test: what will happen to the dollar?**

After the military retrenchment, it will be the turn of industry and capital to make a big exit. But once these two steps are completed, an even more tricky question will surface:

As the U.S. becomes a regional power, how should the dollar, as the world’s reserve currency, be managed?

This is the real ultimate tug-of-war.