🕒 **Time: December 11, 2025 (UTC)

🏛️ Macro Perspective

Currently, ETH price is about **$3196**, with a change of approximately 4.5% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend.

In the overall crypto market, ETH is following mainstream assets' correction, with short-term funds showing caution, and risk appetite slightly cooling down.

🔗 On-Chain Dynamics

📈 (No detailed on-chain data invoked, structural judgment provided)

- Typical signs during a correction:

- Short-term trading activity increases, while long-term addresses remain relatively stable;

- Some leveraged and derivatives positions are passively reduced;

- Funds tend to favor mainstream coins for defense rather than high-risk tail assets.

📉 Technical Structure

📊 Considering the current price range:

- Intraday fluctuation range: approximately $3170 – $3440, with the price operating near the lower end of the range, indicating **correction pressure dominates**. If it continues downward, watch for previous dense trading zones and support bands (key round numbers and previous lows); if upward, a sustained rebound and volume increase to recover the daily decline are needed to confirm stabilization.

🛡️ Risk Signals

Short-term declines are evident, volatility has increased, and there is a risk of “reverse squeezing” from chasing either long or short positions. If macro risk assets face pressure (e.g., stock market weakness, liquidity tightening), ETH volatility may amplify synchronously. Leverage and contract positions are more prone to forced liquidation during the correction phase, so controlling leverage multiples and position concentration is crucial.

🤖 Strategy Modeling

🧠 Simplified strategy ideas from a quantitative perspective:

- Trend factor: Short-term price breaking below intraday average and recent moving averages weakens the bullish signal in the trend model.

Strategy directions:

Long-term holders: Maintain a phased buying/dollar-cost averaging approach, adding small positions during significant volume-driven declines, but avoid heavy one-time positions.

Short-term traders: More suitable for range trading and high-frequency rotation, with strict stop-loss and profit targets.

Position recommendations (general, not investment advice):

Conservative: Total spot position not exceeding 30-40% of planned funds;

Aggressive: Under leverage ≤2x, can trade short-term swings, but with mandatory stop-loss prices.

🚀 Technical indicators should be combined with MACD, RSI (makc).

🧠 MACD & RSI Structural Interpretation (Directional Judgment):

MACD**: Short-term price retracement often shows DIF and DEA converging downward or even a death cross, indicating weakening bullish momentum and strengthening bearish momentum.

RSI: When falling below 50 but not oversold, it usually signals healthy correction; rapid drop below 40 suggests short-term weakness; falling below 30 enters oversold territory, prone to technical rebounds.

The current environment can be summarized as:

Intraday and short-term: Bearish or correction structure; if RSI later enters the 30–40 range with increased volume, beware of technical rebounds after sharp declines.

🧭 Overall Conclusion

Currently, ETH is in a short-term downtrend/correction, not a one-sided rally; trading strategies are more suitable for position control, phased participation on dips, or waiting for technical stabilization signals before increasing positions. Use high leverage cautiously.