Stop staring at the charts. A former Goldman Sachs executive's statement is rewriting all our perceptions of this cycle.

Raoul Pal, a veteran who once managed at Goldman Sachs, recently caused a stir at a conference by outright flipping the table: global debt is unsolvable, and the only way out is to keep printing money. His timeline is—over the next 12 months, $8 trillion in liquidity will flood into the markets.

But what’s even more disruptive is his redefinition of the cycle.

We’ve been using the "four-year halving cycle" to frame a bull market, but Pal presents a completely different model: the real driver of the market isn’t the halving narrative, but the **debt cycle**. According to this logic, the cycle length is 5.4 years, and the bull market peak won’t be in 2025 but delayed until the **end of 2026**.

What does this mean?

If his judgment is correct, the current market is not the end but the mid-stage. You might think you’re sprinting ahead, but in reality, you might still be early. You might think you’re escaping the top, but you could already be getting off halfway up the hill.

This isn’t just simple technical analysis or emotional betting; it’s the spillover from contradictions within the fiat currency system. When central banks are cornered by debt and printing money becomes the only option, the narratives of BTC and ETH are no longer just "digital gold" or "the future of blockchain"—they become tools to hedge systemic risks.

So what should you do now?

First, **recalibrate your timeline**. If the peak is at the end of 2026, you have more time to adjust your positions, but that doesn’t mean relaxing—it means more calmly allocating your funds.
Second, **understand macro variables**. Your opponent is no longer the "big players" on the K-line, but the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.
Third, **reassess your holdings**. Core assets are your foundational holdings, but the true excess returns often come from those undervalued during liquidity floods and able to respond quickly.

When insiders start guiding you, be cautious of two possibilities: either it’s a trap or a shipwreck sounding its horn. Can you tell which one it is?