$BTC $ETH Madison Investment Bank recently released a report: the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate may remain until Q2 2026. At first glance, it looks like "standing pat," but in reality, it’s another form of tightening—liquidity is slowly drying up.

There’s a very sobering line in the report: long-term inflation and fiscal deficits are fundamentally unresolved. The Fed’s toolkit is running out of options, and now it can only let the bond market bear the pressure. What does this mean for the crypto market?

The era of cheap money is over. Funds will still exist, but the cost of financing will cause some projects to die midway. Changes in the US Treasury yield curve are becoming a new risk signal—the steeper the curve, the more risk is stacked behind it. Once traditional markets encounter problems, the crypto space cannot remain unaffected.

From now until 2026, the entire framework is a structural bear market. Bull markets require excess liquidity, but now the faucet is completely turned off.

The strategy is actually simple:

Keep enough cash on hand for extreme opportunities. The market will give out bloody chips—don’t rush to buy the dip.

Avoid short-term trading, focus on rebounds after deep declines. The upcoming phase is choppy and brutal—chasing gains or panic selling will lead to quick deaths.

Concentrate holdings in BTC, ETH, and sectors with real yields. Those storytelling projects will disappear in batches.

The Fed may seem "static," but essentially the system has no more tricks to play. What you perceive as stability is actually a slow deflation of the bubble.