#数字资产生态回暖 What signals did the latest Federal Reserve Chair's remarks send? This speech covers seven key points, each worth analyzing separately.

Currently, interest rates are at the upper end of the neutral range, and the Fed has shifted towards a wait-and-see stance, with rate hikes essentially off the table. However, long-term rates may rise due to increased market confidence in economic growth—this could subtly impact risk asset allocation.

The inflation issue is more complex. Upside risks do exist, but the peak is likely to fluctuate within a range of ±0.几个百分点. The key point is that the current inflation overshoot mainly stems from tariffs, which are usually a one-time effect. If tariff policies are adjusted, inflation could return to the lower end of 2%, which has significant implications for long-term asset pricing.

The economy has always been a focal point. The current assessment is that it remains on a steady growth track, with no signs of overheating. However, there is a hidden risk in the labor market: recent employment data has been revised upward by about 60,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate could increase by another 0.1%-0.2%. This lagging effect often manifests in risk asset prices.

Regarding debt purchases, short-term Treasury operations continue to focus on reserve management, with scale potentially remaining high over the next few months before gradually declining. This will have a sustained impact on liquidity expectations.

The reaction in the futures market is quite interesting: as of the release, traders expect a total of 55 basis points of rate cuts next year (slightly higher than previous expectations), with a 24.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January. This reflects a market re-pricing of the easing cycle.

The onsite performance was a textbook example of a risk appetite switch—gold and silver initially rose, then fell, reaching new highs (silver temporarily hit a record), U.S. Treasury yields fell by 4 basis points, the dollar weakened while non-US currencies strengthened, and U.S. stocks closed higher with the Dow Jones up over 1%. The performance of cryptocurrencies like $BTC is also worth noting. Following the speech, there were reports of criticisms from Trump, who believed that rate cuts should be more aggressive. Pieced together, these fragments reflect a global capital re-evaluation of the triad of liquidity, growth, and inflation.