#美联储降息 $ETH That year I got liquidation, owed a huge debt, and life was really tight: I couldn’t afford to eat an 8-yuan bowl of noodles, so I watched my plate at night, and finished a 2-yuan instant noodles even the broth. My mom sent preserved meat and sausages from the county, and on the phone she kept worriedly nagging: "Make sure you don’t go hungry outside."

After eight years in the crypto circle, I now have 20 million in my account. This isn’t luck; it’s a pattern I’ve summarized after being beaten by the market too many times.

**First Lesson: Rapid rise + sideways consolidation + volume-driven drop = run.**

Back in 2018, I chased a project that surged 40% in three days, then consolidated sideways for four days at a high level. I thought it could still go up, but then it suddenly plummeted with high volume and hit the limit down, losing my principal. Later I realized—that’s a sign that the price skyrocketed over 35% in a short period, consolidated at a high level for 3-5 days, then suddenly dropped over 15% on high volume—that’s a signal the big players are retreating, and you need to get out quickly.

**Second Lesson: Sideways consolidation at a high level is more dangerous than rapid decline.**

In early 2020, I held a coin that stayed at a high price for three months, with decreasing trading volume, turnover rate dropping below 1.5%, and the price over 25% away from the 20-day moving average. I didn’t take it seriously, and eventually it fell to $8. If I encounter this situation again, I’ll just short it directly.

**Third Lesson: Bottoms depend on volume, not price.**

During the "6·18" event in 2022, I thought I was bottoming out a certain coin, but it kept falling. Later, I reviewed hundreds of historical bottom cases and found a pattern: the real bottom is characterized by volume shrinking and consolidating, followed by three consecutive days of gentle volume increase with small positive candles. When $BTC dropped to $28,000 in 2023, this pattern appeared, and I went all-in. When it reached $45,000, I sold, and this money paid my down payment in Hangzhou.

**Fourth Lesson: Trading volume is the foundation; position size is the insurance.**

Candlestick patterns are just surface tricks; the real thing is trading volume. My rule is — always go in with half a position, neither greedy nor timid. When a certain coin skyrocketed in 2024, I waited for volume to break out of the box and for trading volume to increase sixfold before entering. As soon as the trendline broke, I exited completely. Although I only made ten times the profit, I avoided the subsequent 50% haircut.

There’s no quick way in crypto. Endure losses, remember the lessons, and you can step by step reach the shore. The most important thing is to stay alive—live long enough, and there will be opportunities to make money.