Initial jobless claims data is coming, and tonight's market may be choppy again. You all heard the Fed Chairman's statement yesterday — neither hawkish nor dovish, instead leaving the decision-making entirely up to the data itself. What does this mean? Simply put: from now on, every economic data release could trigger market movements.

The rate cuts that should have been implemented have already been made, but no clear path forward has been provided, which precisely indicates one thing — the Federal Reserve has kicked the ball back to the real economy. Whether employment numbers are good, whether prices are rising, whether consumers are willing to spend — if these indicators slightly surpass expectations, the market’s understanding of the subsequent rate cut pace needs to be recalculated, and risk asset sentiment will fluctuate accordingly.

My outlook leans conservative. Currently, this market situation is more like early-stage bear market oscillation rather than a full bullish rally — when news comes out, emotions are immediately amplified, leading to short-term rebounds or sharp drops. The key point is that there’s no continuous inflow of new funds; during data-heavy, volatile times like these, short-term funds engaged in high-frequency trading are most vulnerable to losses.

In plain terms, tonight’s initial jobless claims data is not here to guide the market but to stir the pot. With unclear direction and information overload, the lighter the position during this phase, the less likely it is to go wrong, and the more stable the mindset feels.

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