The next one or two months are key periods to watch.

Let's start with the busy schedule in December: on the 16th, the November unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be released. The last unemployment rate was 4.4%, and this time the expectations haven't been released yet; on the 18th, the November CPI data will be announced, with both the previous and expected figures still undefined; on the 19th, the Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting. Last time, the interest rate was 0.5%, and how it will move this time remains uncertain.

By January 2026, on the 9th, December unemployment and non-farm payroll data will be released; on the 13th, December CPI data will come out; and on the 29th, the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting. In between, there are Christmas and New Year holidays, during which liquidity will definitely be drained.

The market has been range-bound between 83 and 94 for almost a month. Will there be a crash like in 2022? I tend to think not; the price probably won't break below 80 or even lower. The reason is simple — currently, we are neither at the early tightening phase of a rate hike cycle nor in a crisis like 2007-2008, when economic recession forced cuts. The main issue now is the lack of new positive expectations; the market is likely to continue oscillating, waiting for new trading logic to emerge. So, this is a phase of a bear market.

This morning, Powell said that interest rates will not be cut in January. Of course, he has to say that, since the data hasn't been released yet and he can't make an early statement. Recall that in October, he also said rates wouldn't be cut in December, but they were actually cut in December — this is a typical expectation management tactic. We have to wait for the data from November and December to form new expectations.

Another variable is around Christmas or New Year: Trump may announce a new Fed Chair candidate. Once the new chair takes office, the market might stop paying much attention to Powell. The new chair is likely to lean dovish, which is worth noting. The specific timing depends on when Trump wants to make the announcement.

After the New Year holiday in January, most data will be clearer, and the possibility of rate cuts can be roughly judged. The US will resume normal trading around January 6. At that time, market liquidity will pick up somewhat, plus a certain crypto policy will officially come into effect, which can be seen as a positive factor.