#加密生态动态追踪 🚀 "Will the crypto market fall when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates"? Don't be fooled by illusions

On the surface, rate cuts seem positive, but in reality, the market's reaction is often the opposite. But this isn't a breakdown of the pattern; it's the market playing a more complex game.

📊 The true trend usually looks like this:

In the short term, it often rises. Especially when the rate cut reaches 50bp or more, and the dot plot shows a more "dovish" stance than market expectations, BTC and mainstream altcoins can often surge 5%-15% within a day. Sounds reasonable.

The problem arises afterward. Once Powell's comments hint that "future rate cuts may slow down," or the dot plot reveals a more hawkish signal, the market instantly revalues. The previous "loose expectation premium" starts to unwind, sometimes even turning into a decline.

Meanwhile, on-chain activity also changes — large holders withdraw large amounts of funds before and after rate cuts, seemingly causing a dumping illusion, but actually absorbing positions at low prices, which further amplifies volatility.

💡 Why does the reversal happen so strongly? Three forces act simultaneously:

**Expectation Gap Trading** — The rate cut has already been partly digested by the market; the deciding factor is whether the subsequent path will be unexpectedly dovish or hawkish.

**Mixed Macro Signals** — The Fed cuts rates while emphasizing that inflation or employment remains resilient. This ambiguous signal dampens investors' confidence in ongoing liquidity easing.

**Leverage + Whale Operations** — High leverage is triggered by low prices causing short covering (leading to a rise), then high prices trigger long liquidation (then decline). Plus, whale withdrawals cause liquidity gaps, which greatly amplify volatility.

🎯 The conclusion is simple: the crypto market never looks at "whether to cut or not," but rather "whether the cut is more or less than expected." Coupled with high leverage and whale manipulation, this results in the bizarre phenomenon of "falling when rates are cut."