2025-12-11 12:21:52

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again by 25 basis points on December 10, bringing the target range down to 3.50–3.75%. This is the third rate cut in 2025. Logically, easing liquidity should benefit risk assets, and Bitcoin should be on the rise.

Even more exciting, the Fed also announced that it will purchase $40 billion worth of government bonds over the next 30 days, directly injecting short-term liquidity into the banking system. The money is coming, so the market should be excited, right?

What was the result? BTC not only failed to rise but plummeted by 2.14%, breaking below the $90,000 level.

This situation isn’t simple. While rate cuts and bond purchases indeed release short-term liquidity, the market is beginning to worry about long-term risks — more and more people expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in 2026. When macro uncertainty amplifies, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin are the first to be affected.

Retail investors aren’t stupid either. Before the FOMC meeting, giants from mining companies to BlackRock were selling millions of BTC. Inflation remains stubborn, the Fed’s stance is uncertain, and who dares to buy at this point?

Historical data is even more alarming. In the past four FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has pulled back each time. The most severe was in October this year, when BTC crashed nearly 30% in a single month, falling from a high point to $80,000 — marking its first major crash in 2025.

The question now is: will history repeat itself this time? The latest report from Glassnode shows that buy orders near $90,000 are weakening, smart money is accelerating its exit, and supply-demand imbalances are clear, with downward pressure not to be underestimated.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, whether Bitcoin can rebound remains uncertain. Retail investors are rebalancing their portfolios, macro volatility remains high, FOMO sentiment is low, and BTC is likely to continue testing deeper support levels.

Although the market is sluggish, opportunities always favor those who are prepared. Stay calm and wait for signals.

BTC1,52%

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YieldWhisperer

· 2025-12-14 09:26

nah this is textbook unsustainable liquidity trap tbh... the math doesn't add up, never does with these fed moves. short-term printer go brrr but long-term? classic death spiral pattern we saw in 2021. smart money already got the memo and bounced, now retail holding the bag wondering why 400B suddenly doesn't moon btc lmao

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SillyWhale

· 2025-12-11 12:52

Lowering interest rates is not a savior, at best it's a smoke screen It's really hard to understand—spending money and still falling? That logic is incredible. Smart money has already left, and now what's coming in are knives. Let's wait and see; if 90,000 can't hold, we might have to look further down.

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consensus_whisperer

· 2025-12-11 12:31

Interest rate cuts don't lead to rises; they often decline instead. We've seen this routine many times. When macro expectations change, Bitcoin tends to get hit hard. Smart money has already exited; retail investors are still here picking up the bag, it's funny. The past four FOMC meetings have been like this. Will history repeat itself? The probability is quite high. Weak buying pressure indicates that no one dares to buy. Testing support levels on the downside has already begun. Let's wait and see; the true signals haven't appeared yet. Jumping in now is just gambling. Having more money doesn't necessarily help; it depends on how the Federal Reserve's stance changes next.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 2025-12-11 12:30

It's the same story again, easing is supposed to be good for a rise... As a result, I invested 90,000 and now it's been smashed through. I didn't escape during this wave of smart money fleeing; I just wanted to wait for a MACD golden cross, but before the cross came, it continued to be hammered down. Talking about supply and demand imbalance, downward pressure—I just want to know where this support level actually is. The last crash in October was also explained like this.

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