2025-12-11 12:24:48

Many people this morning looked at the charts with a puzzled expression—news clearly said the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, so why did Bitcoin not rise but instead drop sharply? Is the news true or false?

Actually, the logic is simple: **good news has been fully absorbed**. The market had been betting on a 25 basis point cut two weeks ago, and smart money had already been prepared. Once the news was released? Those who should take profit did so, those who should withdraw did so, selling pressure increased, and BTC naturally fell. This is called "good news fully priced in is actually bad news."

Even more critically, **future expectations have completely changed**. Originally, everyone expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates multiple times by 2026, fueling the crypto market. But when the dot plot was released—only one rate cut in 2026? The cost of capital can’t come down, liquidity expectations are directly affected, the bullish momentum is insufficient, and the market of course runs away quickly.

There’s also a detail that’s easy to overlook: **divisions have already appeared within the Federal Reserve**. This time, three members opposed the rate cut, and some even suggested maintaining the current rate, citing concerns about a resurgence of inflation, especially considering possible uncertainties from Trump’s policies. Once hawkish voices surface, it’s a warning sign for the crypto market that relies on liquidity to survive.

In short, the market isn’t afraid of bad news—it fears **empty expectations**. The anticipated feast turned into leftovers, and even during the rate cut debate, there was internal disagreement—on the surface, they won (cut by 25 basis points), but internally, they lost (no future prospects). Bitcoin’s sharp decline is exactly how it happened.

BTC1,91%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ShibaSunglasses

· 2025-12-14 11:20

Is this another trick? Smart money runs early, retail investors are still foolishly waiting for the breakout I told you, this rate cut is basically useless, only once in 2026? Are you kidding me here Even the Fed is arguing internally, that's the real danger signal, brother Good news turns into bad news after the hype, I've been tired of this routine for a long time So should I buy the dip now or run away? I really can't tell anymore When hawkishness rises, it's the end, our crappy coin will get hammered along with it Expectations fall short, the bull market fuel is gone, I might as well go all-in and clear my positions This is what you call saving face but losing the substance, a classic case of superficial good news and pure hype

View OriginalReply0

degenonymous

· 2025-12-11 12:54

It's the same old trick again, smart money ran early, retail investors only realize afterwards, a classic pump-and-dump script. Good news exhausted means bad news; I've heard this phrase so many times but it still needs to be repeated. Only one rate cut in 2026? That basically means liquidity isn't coming back, the bull market has run out of steam. The Fed is already arguing internally, still want to stabilize the market? This time it's really unreliable. Many people must have been washed out by this spike, so pitiful. As soon as the news was released, it crashed immediately; I knew it would be like this, but still some people chased. It's just a matter of expectations collapsing, don’t overthink it. As soon as the dot plot came out, I knew it was time to run, and sure enough. Cutting interest rates ≠ bull market; many people really don’t understand this.

View OriginalReply0

StableCoinKaren

· 2025-12-11 12:53

It's the same story again. The smart money already ran away, and we only realize it now. LOL

View OriginalReply0

MEVEye

· 2025-12-11 12:45

Damn, it's the same old ambush tactic. Retail investors are always the last to know. Smart money eats the meat, we drink the soup. That's the game rule, we've should have gotten used to it. As soon as the candlestick chart appears, you know something's going to happen. Only one rate cut in 2026? Are you kidding me? The Fed is fighting internally, and we're suffering along. Where's the promised liquidity, friends? Expectations are more deadly than the news itself. It's all about the imagination. Lack of liquidity, and this bull market might not be as crazy as imagined. Sigh, once again a textbook-level positive catalyst has played out. When will retail investors get a chance to profit?

View OriginalReply0

UnruggableChad

· 2025-12-11 12:45

Here we go again, the repeated story that good news is just bad news is old and boring. The key point is that there will only be one rate cut in 2026, which is a nightmare. Smart money has already fled, retail investors are still there buying the dip. Hawkish voices are emerging; those of us relying on liquidity to survive really need to be cautious.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingersFOMO

· 2025-12-11 12:42

Another good show of "Expectation vs. Reality." The smart money finished eating half a month ago, and we're only now catching up haha. This time, the dot matrix chart is the real killer. Only one rate cut in 2026? Without liquidity, what can support the bull market? No wonder the bulls are fleeing so quickly. Even Fed insiders are starting to argue. Inflation is indeed a bit annoying, and Trump's unpredictability is even more shocking.

View OriginalReply0