#美联储降息 Mid-December BTC Technical Review

In the short term, Bitcoin has formed a classic ascending wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. What is an ascending wedge? It means that the highs and lows are moving upward, but the resistance line is becoming flatter while the support line is getting steeper. More importantly, the trading volume has been shrinking throughout this process, indicating that the bullish momentum is gradually waning.

Looking back at the recent month’s price action, Bitcoin dropped from around $94,554 to close to $89,400, with quite volatile fluctuations. However, the $88,000 to $89,000 zone is quite solid, containing previous lows and trendline support. Multiple re-tests confirmed strong buying interest here. Currently, there are no conditions for a sudden acceleration downward.

The possible next moves I see are threefold:

**Initial Pullback then Rebound**
It’s expected to first test the core support at $88,000–$89,000, then rebound to test the key resistance zone at $93,000–$94,000 (the upper boundary of recent consolidation). This zone will be the battlefield for bulls and bears.

**If the Rebound Fails (Bearish Scenario)**
If it stalls at $93,000 or gets pushed down at $94,000, the ascending wedge pattern is confirmed. According to Elliott Wave Theory, volume shrinking combined with bearish divergence often signals the fifth wave decline—that is, the "end wave" of market sentiment. The initial target could be $85,000, and if broken, it could head toward the previous low of $80,000, with extreme cases possibly reaching $67,000.

**If the Rebound Succeeds (Bullish Scenario)**
Conversely, if the price can hold above $93,000 and break through $95,000 with increased volume, the wedge pattern invalidates. This would indicate a wave 4 ABC rally, with a short-term target of $96,000, and potentially aiming for the strong resistance zone at $99,000–$102,000. Optimistically, it could test the $100,000 psychological level.

$BTC $ETH The market is still in a buildup phase. The next move depends on whether it can hold the $93,000 line.