#美联储降息 **Policy Game in Market Volatility**

The driving force behind overnight market movements is quite clear—The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on schedule, but then sent a "cautious wait-and-see" signal, which coincided with Trump's call to "increase the rate cut." Such policy disagreements are directly reflected in the market.

The logic that the dollar should weaken and gold should strengthen was reversed in a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern within the day. Once favorable policies are implemented, bullish enthusiasm quickly cools, and profit-taking sell-offs follow.

**Key Support for Gold**

In the short term, gold is likely to continue its correction. The 4200 level is critical—the ability to hold this level will directly determine the subsequent direction.

If it breaks below 4200, the uptrend will temporarily pause, and the downside space will open further, with the next focus on the 4180-4170 range. However, if support at 4200 holds steady, the market may enter a range-bound oscillation, and patience is required.

Next week’s non-farm payroll data is a watershed. This data can directly reflect the true state of the US employment market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, likely triggering a new trend movement.

**Recent Trading Advice**: Gold dips around 4206 can be bought, with a stop-loss at 4198, targeting the 4220-4230 range.

**Crude Oil Position Reduction Strategy**

The short positions placed above 59 earlier have already reached the first target. The current suggestion is to reduce some positions and move the stop-loss to near the cost basis (break-even). The remaining positions should be kept below 57, and once reached, close all positions.

This approach benefits by locking in profits already earned and preventing losses from adverse moves through a break-even stop-loss. Given the intense battle between bulls and bears in the current oil market, the trend remains highly uncertain.

**Recent Trading Advice**: For crude oil, after the positions above 59 hit the target, reduce the positions and set the break-even stop-loss, then exit all remaining positions below 57.