December Precious Metals Market Key Moment: XAUUSD Fundamental and Technical Dual Signal Analysis

【Fundamental Drivers】
Tonight’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending December 6 is the main focus. The previous value was 191,000, with a market expectation of 220,000—this number reflects whether the U.S. labor market is truly weakening.

The logic is straightforward: if the reported figure is ≥220,000, it indicates the employment market is indeed marginally deteriorating, which will further boost expectations of Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar index. A stronger dollar can provide direct upward momentum for gold priced in USD. Even if the final data falls between 191,000 and 220,000, it still suggests no strong rebound in employment, making it difficult for the market’s view of the Fed’s easing cycle to change, naturally constraining gold’s downside.

Additionally, attention should be paid to indicators such as the U.S. September trade balance forecast at -63.3 billion USD and wholesale sales month-over-month forecast at 0.4%. If these data points turn out to be less than ideal, it will reflect weak domestic demand in the U.S., and the safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes of precious metals will become more evident, providing additional support for bullish positions.

【Technical Analysis】
From the 1-hour chart, gold surged to 4247.66 before starting to retreat, with a low of 4204.33—this position just corresponds to the lower boundary of the recent trading range. Subsequently, prices quickly rebounded and stabilized around 4217, forming a stable "bottoming out and rebounding" pattern.

The key signal is: the continuous small bullish candles in the 4200-4210 USD range indicate that bullish buying is beginning to be orderly absorbed, and the short-term downward momentum has significantly weakened. From a pattern perspective, the technical foundation for an upward rebound has already been established.

【Trading Strategy】
Consider entering long positions on dips around 4205-4215. The near-term target zones are 4225-4235, with a potential breakout towards 4240-4247. Market opportunities are often time-sensitive; capturing this window period is crucial.